Page 40 - 2025 HEG Daily Energy Market Report

CARBON (€/T)
FRI MON VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
27/2 2/3 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
CO2 EUA DEC 2026 70.29 70.57 0.28 -0.81 81.46 92.24 69.18
CO2 EUA DEC 2027 72.25 72.56 0.31 -0.82 83.75 94.80 71.09
CO2 EUA DEC 2028 74.40 74.71 0.31 -0.89 86.34 97.73 73.28
CO2 EUA DEC 2029 76.89 77.20 0.31 -0.95 89.32 101.04 75.83
UK ETS DEC 26 EUR 52.66 51.63 -1.03 -1.48 68.36 84.02 51.63
UK ETS DEC 27 EUR 54.85 53.83 -1.02 -1.54 71.30 87.61 53.83
UK ETS DEC 28 EUR 57.41 56.29 -1.12 -1.67 74.62 91.46 56.29

European carbon markets saw only slight advances at the start of the week, as
EUAs incorporated the reduced fuel-switch spread supportive of coal and
appeared resilient to the prevailing macroeconomic risk-off tone. As a result, the
EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 gained 0.4% to 70.57 EUR/tonne.

CO2 EUA

EXCHANGE RATES
FRI MON VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
27/2 2/3 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
RATE EUR/USD 1.1805 1.1698 -0.0107 -0.0086 1.1773 1.1974 1.1617
RATE EUR/GBP 0.8763 0.8739 -0.0024 0.0005 0.8696 0.8763 0.8616
RATE GBP/EUR 1.1412 1.1443 0.0031 -0.0007 1.1500 1.1606 1.1412

The EUR/USD pair dropped by nearly 1% to 1.1698, driven by strong safe-
haven flows into the US Dollar amid heightened Middle East conflict and oil
supply risks. Following US-Israel strikes on Iran, Tehran retaliated with attacks
on US military sites in the Gulf, further weighing on market sentiment.

The EUR/GBP rate edged 0.3% lower at 0.8739 after German Retail Sales fell
0.9% in January, undershooting forecasts and slowing annual growth to 1.2%.
Still, manufacturing data offered some relief, as both Germany’s HCOB PMI
(50.9) and the Eurozone PMI (50.8) climbed back above the 50 expansion
mark.