Page 52 - 2025 HEG Daily Energy Market Report

CARBON (€/T)
TUE WED VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
24/2 25/2 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
CO2 EUA DEC 2026 70.67 72.58 1.91 1.01 82.29 92.24 69.18
CO2 EUA DEC 2027 72.63 74.59 1.96 1.02 84.61 94.80 71.09
CO2 EUA DEC 2028 74.78 76.79 2.01 0.96 87.23 97.73 73.28
CO2 EUA DEC 2029 77.36 79.37 2.01 0.78 90.25 101.04 75.83
UK ETS DEC 26 EUR 52.25 52.64 0.39 -1.87 69.62 84.02 52.20
UK ETS DEC 27 EUR 54.52 54.94 0.42 -1.82 72.61 87.61 54.45
UK ETS DEC 28 EUR 57.09 57.52 0.43 -1.84 76.00 91.46 57.04

Despite a reduction in speculative net long positions to a five-month trough,
European carbon markets strengthened on Wednesday. With short positions
reaching their highest level since late August, the possibility of a short squeeze
has come into focus. As a result, the EUAs expiring in Dec-2026 advanced by
2.7% to 72.58 EUR/tonne.

CO2 EUA

EXCHANGE RATES

TUE WED VAR D-1 VAR W-1 AVG. MAX MIN
24/2 25/2 FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR
RATE EUR/USD 1.1777 1.1784 0.0007 -0.0061 1.1772 1.1974 1.1617
RATE EUR/GBP 0.8731 0.8714 -0.0017 -0.001 0.8691 0.8744 0.8616
RATE GBP/EUR 1.1453 1.1476 0.0023 0.0013 1.1506 1.1606 1.1436

The EUR/USD pair inched up to 1.1784, as investor sentiment remained
weighed down by uncertainty over US trade policy and tariffs, following
President Trump’s recent 10% global tariff announcement. Concerns over US
policy credibility and fiscal stability continue to underpin cautious positioning in
the currency.

The EUR/GBP rate slipped by 0.2% to 0.8714 after Eurozone inflation eased to
1.7% YoY in January, its 16-month low, while Germany’s Q4 GDP growth of
0.3% QoQ met expectations. Despite softer inflation, ECB rate expectations
remained largely unchanged.